A couple of months ago, we discussed at length the dramatic return of Donald Trump to the White House and how his political resurgence could reshape the Nigerian economy. Back then, the conversation centered around oil, foreign capital, and global geopolitics—especially the Russia-Ukraine war—and how these elements, under Trump’s leadership, could either further destabilize or cautiously uplift Nigeria’s already fragile economy.

Fast forward to April 2025, and what was once speculative is now reality. Among other things, President Trump has made one of his major moves on the global stage by announcing a sweeping 14% tariff on all U.S. imports, dubbing April 9th “Liberation Day.” The aim? To “liberate American jobs” and reduce foreign dependency. But the ripple effects of this decision are being felt far beyond American shores—and for Nigeria, there could be far reaching consequences.

In the Crossfire of a Global Trade War

While Trump’s tariffs were clearly aimed at economic giants like China, Nigeria has found itself caught in the crossfire. The West African nation exports roughly $10 billion worth of goods to the U.S. annually, the vast majority of which—80% is crude oil. With the newly imposed tariff, U.S. refiners will now pay 14% more for Nigerian oil, effectively making it less competitive in the international market.

Let’s break that down: if Nigeria sells $100 worth of oil to a U.S. buyer, that transaction will now cost $114. Facing this extra cost, American buyers will likely turn to cheaper alternatives—from the Middle East, Latin America, or even domestic reserves. Even a modest 14% drop in demand would shave over $1.1 billion off Nigeria’s export revenue. That’s not just a statistic—it’s real money that could have funded 10% of the country’s health budget.

Worse still, if Nigeria loses its U.S. market entirely, it will be forced to scramble for buyers in an already oversupplied oil market—likely selling at discounted prices, further shrinking national income.

The Domino Effect on the Economy

This isn’t just about trade. It’s about Nigeria’s entire economic engine, which is fueled—almost literally—by oil.

With fewer dollars flowing into the national coffers, Nigeria’s already dwindling foreign reserves could shrink further. This would leave the Central Bank with even fewer tools to defend the naira. According to some analysts, if the U.S. market dries up and no new buyers emerge, the naira could slide dangerously close to N2,000 per dollar—a scenario that would trigger hyperinflation.

The pain doesn’t stop at oil—there is risk of a retaliatory twist. For context, Nigeria imports around $5 billion worth of goods from the U.S. annually—including essentials like wheat, (used to make bread), gadgets and accessories, and industrial machinery critical for manufacturing. Though Trump’s tariff targets imports into the U.S., if Nigeria responds with duties on American goods, prices could skyrocket.

Consider this: a 14% increase in wheat costs could raise the price of bread by 15% or more. In a country where over 60% of households struggle to afford regular meals, that’s not just inconvenient—it’s a humanitarian risk. Moreso, for the 25 million unemployed Nigerians, it could be catastrophic.

Imported items like phones, electronics, and vehicles—already expensive due to the weakened naira—could see further price hikes, squeezing both consumers and small businesses.

So, What Can Be Done?

Amid the looming crisis, there lies a potential silver lining. Trump’s trade war could be the wake-up call Nigeria has long needed. For decades, the country has been over-reliant on crude oil exports and over-dependent on imports for basic goods. This tariff shock might just be the jolt that pushes Nigeria to diversify its economy.

Some steps forward could include:

• Deepening trade with Asia: China and India already buy significant volumes of Nigerian crude. Strengthening those ties could help cushion the blow from the U.S. exit.

• Leveraging the AfCFTA: The African Continental Free Trade Area offers a massive, largely untapped market for Nigerian goods. Regional trade could become a lifeline.

• Investing in local production: Growing more wheat at home, reviving domestic manufacturing, and ramping up agricultural output could reduce dependency on foreign goods.

• Exploring currency swap agreements: Bilateral trade deals that allow transactions in local currencies (e.g., with Russia, India, or Brazil) could ease pressure on the dollar and help stabilize the naira.

This won’t be easy as it would require bold fiscal reforms, honest governance, and targeted investments. But if Nigeria can seize this moment, it may come out more resilient, more self-sufficient, and better prepared for the next global shock.

Protecting Your Money in These Uncertain Times

As Nigeria grapples with this, the responsibility doesn’t just lie on government policies but also on individuals to safeguard their personal finances.

To this end, strategic money management becomes the first line of defense. This means creating a budget that reflects current realities, cutting non-essential spending, and building an emergency fund.

Investment also becomes a critical tool—but it must be approached wisely. While traditional assets like real estate, stocks, bonds, and treasury bills remain viable, there’s a growing appeal in regulated digital investment platforms offering access to diversified, safe, high-return opportunities. Platforms such as Bravewood have gained trust by offering investment products tailored to a cautious but rewarding risk appetite, all the while protecting your money from inflation.

Final Thoughts

In the end, while Trump’s 14% tariff may have been designed to protect the American industry, its effects are global—and Nigeria stands among the most exposed.

Yet, within every crisis lies a catalyst for transformation.

The next few months will no doubt test Nigeria’s economic and political will. But they also offer a unique opportunity: to pivot, to reform, and to rise stronger than before.

The question is no longer whether change is needed.

The question is—will we rise to meet it?

Bravewood provides Nigerian professionals with low-risk, high-return investment products, licensed by the Central Bank of Nigeria.